The intelligent thing to do with Brexit.

I am someone who thinks that Brexit is the biggest own goal this country has ever made in its history. That it will severely damage our economy and world standing and isolate and reduce us as a nation. I also believe that the inward looking mentality will be detrimental to the psychology of the nation.

However, there are many unknowns in this process. I may be wrong. Perhaps there will not be tariffs? Perhaps the number of firms and banks fleeing the country will not be as many as predicted? Perhaps we can negotiate good deals with the world and our economy won’t be destroyed? Perhaps cooperation on the environment, terrorism, science, education, human rights and the rest will not be badly impaired. Instead of an emotional or ideological stance it seems to me that it is logical to apply intelligence to the decision making as things becomes apparent.

As Brexit progresses it becomes increasingly clear that it is an extremely complex process and a very expensive process.

Nobody was able to tell what the cost and problems connected with Brexit were going to be at the beginning. They certainly were not flagged up in the referendum campaign. As we go along these are becoming clearer. We’ll see if it is worth it.

  • There will be an exit cost – as we meet the commitments we are signed up to. I have read the figure of £100 Billion. I do not know how accurate that is.
  • There will likely be tariffs imposed on goods exchanged with the EU.
  • The car industry export/import arrangements will need clarifying
  • Banking and commerce agreements will need negotiating
  • Managing the Euro happens in London – will it remain?
  • There is, and will be, the effect on the pound.
  • There are environmental agreements and legislation to be agreed (pollution, air quality, conservation projects etc.)
  • There are human rights issues to be agreed.
  • Employment issues to be sorted.
  • Scientific research and cooperation issues and agreements to be made
  • Space and aviation cooperation and issues to be sorted
  • Travel arrangements and visas between us and the EU need negotiating
  • Right of entry, work permits and residence need to be set up
  • Police cooperation against crime needs sorting
  • Intelligence cooperation against terrorism needs agreeing
  • Armed forces cooperation for mutual protection needs sorting
  • Rights of EU citizens in the UK need addressing
  • Rights of British citizens in the EU need addressing
  • The open border in Ireland
  • There are fishing agreements to be sorted and quotas to be arranged
  • There are student access arrangements to be made – both ways
  • There are trading arrangement and agreements to be negotiated with the rest of the world.
  • Farming subsidies
  • Inner city subsidies
  • Other subsidies now coming from the EU for projects and development.

All this is just the start of it. Enough to keep an army of lawyers and civil servants in business for many years.

At some point the costs of all this will become clear. At some point the extent of cooperation/isolation will become clear. At some point it will be clear if we are going to make up the trade loss with the EU by deals with the world. At some point the situation regarding treaties and cooperation with become apparent.

At that point we will be in a position to make an informed judgement of the costs and benefits of leaving the EU.

At that point I hope that the government will come to its senses. They need to evaluate the cost and ask if it is in the country’s interest to continue.

If the cost is not too great and the benefits look good – then we proceed.

If the cost is too high and the benefits look dubious – then we pull out.

Ideology and emotion shouldn’t get in the way.

I would also hope that at this point the government gives the population a vote on the deal.

I hope I am wrong but I see us careering full tilt at the rocks. Brexit is already a nightmare and we’re not anywhere near it yet. It has cost us a lot of money. The worst is yet to come.

Intelligence – not dogma, emotion or lies.

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28 thoughts on “The intelligent thing to do with Brexit.

  1. Yepp. Good to read this from your side of the channel.

    TWO WORLD WARS AND A WORLD CUP, TOO – PLUS THIS OWN GOAL NOW …

    What will turn out having been the worst …

    With EUROPEAN Greetings ! Matt

  2. Wow, that’s quite the list, Opher. Looks pretty daunting from way over here. While you folks are sorting out Brexit costs and benefits, we are renegotiating our free trade agreement with the US and Mexico. We have a free trade deal in place with the EU, and we’re working on deals with nations in the Pacific. Interesting how our two nations are moving in opposite directions on trade.

  3. What are you 2 wittering on about? Tories with blinders? Get real, Brexit was decided on the working class Labour voters vote. That’s what swung it. Any Labour parliamentarian will tell you that.

    You talk of pollution etc. Answer me this Opher, if you know. How many coal burning power stations have Germany opened in the last decade? How many in just the last couple of years?
    Do they give a shit about filthy emissions? Is there one rule for them and another for others?

    As for “managing” the Euro. When are you going to wake up to the fact that the Euro is managed, run, controlled, loaned, forecasted, you name it, by the Bundesbank. They make all the profit. All we get here is a poultry “servicing” fee. They also print some 60 Billions worth every year. They need money – they just print more. It’s an economic nightmare.
    That’s why you need to read “Adults in the Room” asap, and desist from this crap you’ve been sold and bought into.

    • It is a total mess. Cooperation has built over the years in so many areas that are completely interdependent. To try to extract ourselves from such an intermeshing network is time-consuming and expensive. The end result is worse for both parties.
      This whole Brexit vote was undertaken with no real analysis of the costs and difficulties, a pack of lies and a wave of stoked up fear and hatred. The populist nationalists fermented fear of immigrants and terrorism as they always do. Every time someone spoke about the difficulties it was labelled as ‘Project Fear’ without the issues being addressed. There was some utopian vision extended that was farcical. In effect the right wing has shot us all in the foot for their own little Englander ideology.
      The future looks very bleak. Brexit, like Trump’s election (using the same hatred and fear, xenophobia and sloganizing), has produced needless division, racism and violence.

  4. The future is anything but bleak, but as I’ve said several times before, your comprehension of economics needs addressing.
    Our pre-Brexit media coverage was absolutely pathetic and extremely biased. They focused too
    much on the horse race and not nearly enough focus on the public views at large. The language that was used in mainstream media, particularly with the BBC, just didn’t connect with ordinary people with an endless number of politicians who insisted on using acronyms endlessly.
    Trump understood that and engaged in plain speak that really got up the noses of the parliamentary elite classes. However, the people understood it and could remember it. He got people in the mid-west to vote for the first time in their lives.

    As for your case for desperately seeking EUtopia, here are some simple level pointers:
    Only 9% of UK’s GDP is exported to the EU. We are sold to at inflated prices. By leaving we abandon a protected customs union run by greedy cartels, and move into free trade at world prices. We would immediately benefit from an 8% drop in the cost of living from day one.
    These EU trade regulations hold back growth and are not in line with free market principles and the costs to us are very large. Our trade with EU has been contracting, whereas everywhere else it is expanding. The EU will want and need to sell to us.
    We have burdened all our heavy industry with huge energy costs and our own councils cannot assist with business rates relief as provision is dictated by EU rates regulations and EU state aid rules. The results are heavy industry closing all over Europe with markets taken by others outside.

    Look at the jobs losses we have suffered in the last 10 years. 60,000 jobs in steel, 40,000 in alluminium, 10,000 in refining and thousands more in glass and cement.
    Because of Osborne’s decision to subsidise rich landowners to put wind turbines on their land, the result is energy costs that are double the rest of the EU.
    The wind energy and renewables ‘investment’ policy has given rise to the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in modern times.
    Our heavy industries are being destroyed because we’re giving them energy that is simply too expensive. We need a level playing field to compete.

    Massive supply of labour is driving the price of wages down. We used to be able to handle the 30,000 new arrivals each year back in the days of the Common Market. Today, at levels at least 300,000 per year we seriously struggle. It is utter stupidity to lose control of our own border controls. As is giving away control of your economy and interest rates and becoming trapped inside an economic prison.
    The Euro wasn’t launched for economies, but political reasons by the people that support the mandate to build a new United States of Europe, regardless of the people’s opinions.

  5. Completely agree – I’ve started my own blog to try to show the stupidity of it
    Confessionsofasecretbrexitnegotiator.com

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