I am someone who thinks that Brexit is the biggest own goal this country has ever made in its history. That it will severely damage our economy and world standing and isolate and reduce us as a nation. I also believe that the inward looking mentality will be detrimental to the psychology of the nation.
However, there are many unknowns in this process. I may be wrong. Perhaps there will not be tariffs? Perhaps the number of firms and banks fleeing the country will not be as many as predicted? Perhaps we can negotiate good deals with the world and our economy won’t be destroyed? Perhaps cooperation on the environment, terrorism, science, education, human rights and the rest will not be badly impaired. Instead of an emotional or ideological stance it seems to me that it is logical to apply intelligence to the decision making as things becomes apparent.
As Brexit progresses it becomes increasingly clear that it is an extremely complex process and a very expensive process.
Nobody was able to tell what the cost and problems connected with Brexit were going to be at the beginning. They certainly were not flagged up in the referendum campaign. As we go along these are becoming clearer. We’ll see if it is worth it.
- There will be an exit cost – as we meet the commitments we are signed up to. I have read the figure of £100 Billion. I do not know how accurate that is.
- There will likely be tariffs imposed on goods exchanged with the EU.
- The car industry export/import arrangements will need clarifying
- Banking and commerce agreements will need negotiating
- Managing the Euro happens in London – will it remain?
- There is, and will be, the effect on the pound.
- There are environmental agreements and legislation to be agreed (pollution, air quality, conservation projects etc.)
- There are human rights issues to be agreed.
- Employment issues to be sorted.
- Scientific research and cooperation issues and agreements to be made
- Space and aviation cooperation and issues to be sorted
- Travel arrangements and visas between us and the EU need negotiating
- Right of entry, work permits and residence need to be set up
- Police cooperation against crime needs sorting
- Intelligence cooperation against terrorism needs agreeing
- Armed forces cooperation for mutual protection needs sorting
- Rights of EU citizens in the UK need addressing
- Rights of British citizens in the EU need addressing
- The open border in Ireland
- There are fishing agreements to be sorted and quotas to be arranged
- There are student access arrangements to be made – both ways
- There are trading arrangement and agreements to be negotiated with the rest of the world.
- Farming subsidies
- Inner city subsidies
- Other subsidies now coming from the EU for projects and development.
All this is just the start of it. Enough to keep an army of lawyers and civil servants in business for many years.
At some point the costs of all this will become clear. At some point the extent of cooperation/isolation will become clear. At some point it will be clear if we are going to make up the trade loss with the EU by deals with the world. At some point the situation regarding treaties and cooperation with become apparent.
At that point we will be in a position to make an informed judgement of the costs and benefits of leaving the EU.
At that point I hope that the government will come to its senses. They need to evaluate the cost and ask if it is in the country’s interest to continue.
If the cost is not too great and the benefits look good – then we proceed.
If the cost is too high and the benefits look dubious – then we pull out.
Ideology and emotion shouldn’t get in the way.
I would also hope that at this point the government gives the population a vote on the deal.
I hope I am wrong but I see us careering full tilt at the rocks. Brexit is already a nightmare and we’re not anywhere near it yet. It has cost us a lot of money. The worst is yet to come.
Intelligence – not dogma, emotion or lies.